It is the most common lie gamblers tell themselves:
"I have lost 5 bets in a row. The law of averages says I MUST win the next one."
This is called the Gambler's Fallacy (or the Monte Carlo Fallacy).
And it is the reason casinos make billions.
The Monte Carlo Incident
In 1913, at a casino in Monte Carlo, the roulette ball landed on Black 26 times in a row.
- After Black #10, people started betting millions on Red. "It has to be Red next!"
- It was Black.
- After Black #20, people were screaming and betting everything on Red.
- It was Black.
The casino made a fortune. Why? Because the ball brings no memory of the previous spin. The chance of Black is always 48.6%.
How This Applies to Cricket
"Bangladesh hasn't won a match in 10 games. They are due for a win!"
No, they are not.
They are likely playing badly. The past results (0-10) suggest they are weak, not that they are about to become strong magically.
Conclusion
Every bet is an independent event.
Do not bet because you are "due". Bet because you found Value.
Stop chasing your losses. Read our guide on Chasing Losses to save your bankroll.
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