Odds are not static. They are alive.
Understanding Why they move is the key to predicting the result.

The Three Causes of Movement

  1. Fundamental Factors (News):

    • Example: Rohit Sharma is ruled out with an injury.
    • Reaction: India's odds drastically increase (worse chance).

  2. Market Balancing (Public Money):

    • Example: Public pours money on Australia.
    • Reaction: Bookmakers cut Australia's odds to minimize their liability.

  3. Sharp Action (Smart Money):

    • Example: A syndicate bets 10 Lakh on Bangladesh.
    • Reaction: The bookmaker immediately respects this bet and slashes the odds.
Types of Betting Line Movement

How to Trade the Steam

"Chasing the Steam" is a popular strategy.
If you see odds dropping rapidly on One site (the Sharp Bookie), you quickly go to a "Slow Bookie" and bet on the old, higher odds before they change.

Example:

  • Pinnacle (Sharp): India drops to 1.60.
  • Local Site (Slow): India is still 1.75.
  • Action: Bet on Local Site immediately. You have instant value.

Conclusion

Odds tell a story.
If the line is moving against you, ask yourself: "What do they know that I don't?"
Usually, the market is right.

Now, let's talk about the goal of all this: Bankroll Growth Strategy.