If there is one article you read on this entire site, make it this one.
Value Betting is the only way to beat the bookies mathematically.
The Coin Toss Example
Imagine I offer you a bet on a Coin Toss.
- Heads: You win 100 Taka.
- Tails: You lose 100 Taka.
Since the chance is 50/50, over 1000 flips, you will break even.
This is "Fair Odds" (2.00).
Scenario A: Bad Value
I offer you odds of 1.80 (Win 80, Lose 100).
- If you bet on this, you are guaranteed to lose money in the long run.
- This is what most gamblers do every day.
Scenario B: Good Value
I offer you odds of 2.10 (Win 110, Lose 100).
- Even if you lose the first flip, if you keep betting, you are guaranteed to make money. The math is in your favor.
How to Find Value in Cricket
Bookmakers are smart, but they are not perfect. They sometimes get the odds wrong.
- Early Markets: When odds first open, they are often based on stats, not news. If you know a key player is injured before the bookie does, you have value.
- Public Bias: The public loves favorites (like India or Australia). Heavy betting on them pushes their odds down, often pushing the Underdog's odds up into usage "Value" territory.
- Opinion: If you are a cricket expert, trust your analysis. If you think Bangladesh has a 40% chance to beat England, and the odds suggest only 20%, bet on Bangladesh.
Conclusion
Don't ask "Who will win?". Ask "Is the price wrong?".
If you bet on Value consistently, the results will follow.
But be careful of your mental state. Read about Betting Psychology: Tilt next.
